College Football Standings & Playoff Projections
Final standings and the projected playoff field if every remaining game goes as predicted.
The current production model - selected and validated on real historical results.
Games through week 3 count by their actual result; every game after that reflects the model's current prediction for that matchup.
Projected 12-team playoff field
5 highest-rated conference champions get automatic bids (top 4 seeded for a bye); the rest are at-large by projected record - following the real CFP's selection structure.
| SeedProjected 12-team College Football Playoff seed | Team | Conference | Projected record | RatingOur model's power rating for this team - higher is better |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | byechampion | Big Ten | 13-0 | 25.056 |
| 2 | byechampion | SEC | 12-1 | 23.204 |
| 3 | byechampion | ACC | 12-1 | 21.984 |
| 4 | byechampion | Big 12 | 13-0 | 21.973 |
| 5 | FBS Independents | 12-0 | 19.476 | |
| 6 | SEC | 12-1 | 22.799 | |
| 7 | Big Ten | 12-1 | 19.155 | |
| 8 | Big 12 | 12-1 | 14.999 | |
| 9 | Big 12 | 11-1 | 11.076 | |
| 10 | champion | Sun Belt | 13-0 | 5.651 |
| 11 | champion | American Athletic | 13-0 | 3.9 |
| 12 | champion | Pac-12 | 11-1 | 8.118 |
All projected conference championship games
- ACC: Miami over Louisville
- American Athletic: South Florida over Tulane
- Big 12: Utah over Texas Tech
- Big Ten: Indiana over Penn State
- Conference USA: Liberty over Delaware
- Mid-American: Toledo over Western Michigan
- Mountain West: New Mexico over North Dakota State
- Pac-12: Boise State over San Diego State
- SEC: Georgia over Alabama
- Sun Belt: James Madison over South Alabama
Full projected standings
| Rank | Team | Conference | Actual | Projected final | RatingOur model's power rating for this team - higher is better |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #1 | Big Ten | 3-0 | 13-0 | 25.056 |
| 2 | #4 | Big 12 | 3-0 | 13-0 | 21.973 |
| 3 | #5 | FBS Independents | 3-0 | 12-0 | 19.476 |
| 4 | #2 | SEC | 3-0 | 12-1 | 23.204 |
| 5 | #6 | SEC | 3-0 | 12-1 | 22.799 |
| 6 | #3 | ACC | 3-0 | 12-1 | 21.984 |
| 7 | #7 | Big Ten | 3-0 | 12-1 | 19.155 |
| 8 | #8 | Big 12 | 3-0 | 12-1 | 14.999 |
| 9 | #9 | Big 12 | 3-0 | 11-1 | 11.076 |
| 10 | #10 | Sun Belt | 2-0 | 13-0 | 5.651 |
| 11 | #11 | American Athletic | 3-0 | 13-0 | 3.9 |
| 12 | ACC | 2-1 | 11-2 | 10.335 | |
| 13 | SEC | 3-0 | 10-2 | 15.199 | |
| 14 | Big Ten | 4-0 | 10-2 | 14.744 | |
| 15 | Big 12 | 3-0 | 10-2 | 14.072 | |
| 16 | ACC | 2-1 | 10-2 | 10.452 | |
| 17 | ACC | 3-0 | 10-2 | 9.334 | |
| 18 | ACC | 3-0 | 10-2 | 9.301 | |
| 19 | Mountain West | 2-1 | 12-1 | 2.738 | |
| 20 | Mid-American | 2-1 | 12-1 | 0.098 | |
| 21 | #12 | Pac-12 | 1-1 | 11-1 | 8.118 |
| 22 | SEC | 3-0 | 9-3 | 18.218 | |
| 23 | SEC | 2-1 | 9-3 | 15.895 | |
| 24 | Big Ten | 2-1 | 9-3 | 15.565 | |
| 25 | SEC | 2-1 | 9-3 | 14.449 | |
| 26 | Big Ten | 2-1 | 9-3 | 14.279 | |
| 27 | SEC | 3-0 | 9-3 | 11.488 | |
| 28 | Big 12 | 2-1 | 9-3 | 5.972 | |
| 29 | Mountain West | 3-0 | 11-2 | 1.125 | |
| 30 | Mid-American | 3-0 | 10-2 | -6.802 | |
| 31 | Big Ten | 3-0 | 8-4 | 11.152 | |
| 32 | Big 12 | 2-1 | 8-4 | 10.178 | |
| 33 | SEC | 3-0 | 8-4 | 10.083 | |
| 34 | Big Ten | 3-0 | 8-4 | 7.849 | |
| 35 | Big Ten | 2-0 | 8-4 | 7.829 | |
| 36 | Big 12 | 1-1 | 8-4 | 7.574 | |
| 37 | ACC | 2-1 | 8-4 | 6.673 | |
| 38 | Big Ten | 2-0 | 8-4 | 4.411 | |
| 39 | ACC | 3-0 | 8-4 | 3.772 | |
| 40 | ACC | 2-1 | 8-4 | 3.617 | |
| 41 | Conference USA | 2-1 | 10-3 | -5.551 | |
| 42 | American Athletic | 3-1 | 9-3 | 1.064 | |
| 43 | American Athletic | 2-1 | 9-3 | -0.998 | |
| 44 | FBS Independents | 2-1 | 9-3 | -2.193 | |
| 45 | SEC | 3-0 | 7-5 | 9.753 | |
| 46 | Big Ten | 3-0 | 7-5 | 8.386 | |
| 47 | Big Ten | 2-1 | 7-5 | 1.814 | |
| 48 | Big 12 | 2-1 | 7-5 | 1.632 | |
| 49 | American Athletic | 1-2 | 9-4 | 0.365 | |
| 50 | Mid-American | 2-1 | 9-4 | -0.006 | |
| 51 | American Athletic | 1-2 | 8-4 | 2.468 | |
| 52 | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 8-4 | -6.964 | |
| 53 | Mid-American | 1-2 | 8-4 | -8.189 | |
| 54 | SEC | 2-1 | 6-6 | 9.907 | |
| 55 | Big Ten | 3-0 | 6-6 | 7.29 | |
| 56 | ACC | 1-2 | 6-6 | 7.074 | |
| 57 | SEC | 3-0 | 6-6 | 4.865 | |
| 58 | Big 12 | 2-1 | 6-6 | 3.861 | |
| 59 | Big 12 | 3-0 | 6-6 | 0.348 | |
| 60 | ACC | 1-2 | 6-6 | -0.801 | |
| 61 | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 8-5 | -6.4 | |
| 62 | Conference USA | 2-1 | 8-5 | -7.674 | |
| 63 | American Athletic | 1-2 | 7-5 | -3.621 | |
| 64 | Mountain West | 1-2 | 7-5 | -4.534 | |
| 65 | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 7-5 | -5.888 | |
| 66 | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 7-5 | -6.092 | |
| 67 | Mid-American | 1-2 | 7-5 | -6.83 | |
| 68 | Conference USA | 1-2 | 7-5 | -7.261 | |
| 69 | Conference USA | 2-1 | 7-5 | -7.542 | |
| 70 | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 7-5 | -8.59 | |
| 71 | Conference USA | 1-2 | 7-5 | -8.683 | |
| 72 | Conference USA | 2-2 | 7-5 | -10.098 | |
| 73 | SEC | 2-1 | 5-7 | 7.861 | |
| 74 | SEC | 3-0 | 5-7 | 7.847 | |
| 75 | Big 12 | 2-1 | 5-7 | 4.056 | |
| 76 | Big Ten | 2-1 | 5-7 | 2.784 | |
| 77 | — | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1.501 | |
| 78 | ACC | 2-1 | 5-7 | 1.489 | |
| 79 | Big Ten | 2-1 | 5-7 | -0.043 | |
| 80 | Pac-12 | 1-2 | 6-5 | -4.977 | |
| 81 | Pac-12 | 0-2 | 6-5 | -5.618 | |
| 82 | Pac-12 | 1-1 | 6-6 | -2.841 | |
| 83 | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 6-6 | -3.974 | |
| 84 | American Athletic | 3-0 | 6-6 | -5.2 | |
| 85 | American Athletic | 1-2 | 6-6 | -5.764 | |
| 86 | Sun Belt | 2-0 | 6-6 | -6.494 | |
| 87 | Sun Belt | 2-1 | 6-6 | -8.771 | |
| 88 | Mid-American | 2-1 | 6-6 | -9.597 | |
| 89 | SEC | 2-1 | 4-8 | 6.317 | |
| 90 | Big 12 | 2-1 | 4-8 | 5.68 | |
| 91 | Big Ten | 2-1 | 4-8 | 5.284 | |
| 92 | Big 12 | 3-0 | 4-8 | 2.838 | |
| 93 | Big 12 | 1-2 | 4-8 | -0.101 | |
| 94 | ACC | 1-2 | 4-8 | -0.218 | |
| 95 | ACC | 2-1 | 4-8 | -1.137 | |
| 96 | Pac-12 | 1-1 | 5-6 | -1.795 | |
| 97 | — | 0-1 | 0-1 | -4.225 | |
| 98 | American Athletic | 1-1 | 5-7 | -4.224 | |
| 99 | American Athletic | 1-1 | 5-7 | -7.116 | |
| 100 | Mid-American | 1-2 | 5-7 | -7.753 | |
| 101 | Mountain West | 1-1 | 5-7 | -8.745 | |
| 102 | Mid-American | 1-2 | 5-7 | -9.141 | |
| 103 | Mountain West | 1-2 | 5-7 | -10.062 | |
| 104 | Mountain West | 0-2 | 5-7 | -11.15 | |
| 105 | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 5-7 | -11.54 | |
| 106 | SEC | 2-1 | 3-9 | 3.931 | |
| 107 | SEC | 1-2 | 3-9 | 0.072 | |
| 108 | Pac-12 | 0-3 | 4-7 | -2.835 | |
| 109 | Big Ten | 1-1 | 3-9 | -3.405 | |
| 110 | Big 12 | 2-1 | 3-9 | -4.547 | |
| 111 | ACC | 2-1 | 3-9 | -5.372 | |
| 112 | ACC | 2-1 | 3-9 | -6.24 | |
| 113 | Mountain West | 2-1 | 5-8 | -7.753 | |
| 114 | Mountain West | 1-2 | 4-8 | -6.632 | |
| 115 | Mountain West | 1-2 | 4-8 | -8.836 | |
| 116 | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 4-8 | -9.589 | |
| 117 | American Athletic | 2-1 | 4-8 | -10.118 | |
| 118 | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 4-8 | -10.279 | |
| 119 | Sun Belt | 0-3 | 4-8 | -10.673 | |
| 120 | Mid-American | 1-2 | 4-8 | -12.305 | |
| 121 | Pac-12 | 1-2 | 3-8 | -1.77 | |
| 122 | Big 12 | 2-1 | 2-10 | -4.154 | |
| 123 | Big Ten | 2-1 | 2-10 | -5.337 | |
| 124 | ACC | 1-2 | 2-10 | -8.169 | |
| 125 | Pac-12 | 2-1 | 3-8 | -8.188 | |
| 126 | American Athletic | 1-2 | 3-9 | -9.031 | |
| 127 | American Athletic | 1-2 | 3-9 | -11.889 | |
| 128 | Mid-American | 1-2 | 3-9 | -13.198 | |
| 129 | Conference USA | 1-2 | 3-9 | -13.579 | |
| 130 | Conference USA | 1-2 | 3-9 | -14.79 | |
| 131 | Conference USA | 0-3 | 3-9 | -14.859 | |
| 132 | Big Ten | 0-3 | 1-11 | -5.131 | |
| 133 | ACC | 1-2 | 1-11 | -5.398 | |
| 134 | Conference USA | 1-2 | 2-10 | -11.794 | |
| 135 | Mid-American | 1-3 | 2-10 | -15.087 | |
| 136 | Mid-American | 1-2 | 1-11 | -14.568 | |
| 137 | Mid-American | 0-3 | 1-11 | -15.572 | |
| 138 | Sun Belt | 1-2 | 1-11 | -15.729 | |
| 139 | Mountain West | 1-2 | 1-11 | -17.27 | |
| 140 | American Athletic | 0-2 | 0-12 | -12.973 |
"Actual" is the real record so far; "Projected final" adds the simulated result of every remaining game. Pick an earlier week above to see what this projection would have looked like at that point in the season.