College Football Prediction Accuracy Tracker

How each algorithm has actually done this season, graded week by week as it happened.

Season

Vs. spread is the meaningful test: did the model's pick beat Vegas's own line, whether that means picking the outright winner or just predicting the underdog would keep it closer than the market expected (a backdoor cover)? Straight-up only asks whether the predicted winner matched - easy to inflate by leaning on favorites, since Vegas favorites win outright most of the time regardless of the spread.

Algorithm	Games	Straight-up	MAE (pts)
Power Rank Model	101	72-29 (71.3%)	16.327
Agate ModelDEFAULT	152	122-30 (80.3%)	13.041

Game-by-game for

Week

152 games in 2026

Wk	Matchup	Final	Predicted	Vegas	Vs. spread	Winner
1	10 at48	+38.0	+20.5	+28.0	✗	✓
1	16 at17	+1.0	+6.0	+6.5	✓	✓
1	45 at24	-21.0	+4.5	-2.5	✗	✗
1	15 at34	+19.0	+12.5	+7.0	✓	✓
1	13 at35	+22.0	+1.0	+2.5	✗	✓
1	3 at17	+14.0	+5.5	+9.5	✗	✓
1	27 at21	-6.0	+5.0	+1.5	✗	✗
1	17 at28	+11.0	-5.0	+9.5	✗	✗
1	21 at66	+45.0	+18.5	+26.5	✗	✓
1	27 at24	-3.0	-1.5	-3.0	—	✓
1	17 at34	+17.0	+18.0	+30.5	✓	✓
1	14 at13	-1.0	+10.0	+6.5	✗	✗
1	21 at6	-15.0	-1.5	-3.0	✗	✓
1	20 at33	+13.0	+17.0	+20.5	✓	✓
1	23 at42	+19.0	+22.5	+26.5	✓	✓
1	16 at52	+36.0	+17.5	+39.5	✓	✓
1	0 at40	+40.0	+29.5	+32.0	✗	✓
1	13 at20	+7.0	+17.5	+6.0	✓	✓
1	10 at51	+41.0	+3.5	+10.0	✗	✓
1	24 at42	+18.0	+12.0	+10.5	✓	✓
1	12 at13	+1.0	+17.5	+27.5	✓	✓
1	20 at30	+10.0	-4.0	+10.0	—	✗
1	13 at62	+49.0	+22.5	+28.5	✗	✓
1	21 at49	+28.0	+9.0	+23.5	✗	✓
1	14 at49	+35.0	-1.5	-1.5	✗	✗
1	7 at38	+31.0	+4.5	+11.0	✗	✓
1	7 at33	+26.0	+9.0	+6.5	✓	✓
1	13 at41	+28.0	+25.5	+20.5	✓	✓
1	3 at56	+53.0	+45.0	+50.5	✗	✓
1	0 at51	+51.0	+32.0	+40.5	✗	✓
1	38 at41	+3.0	+5.5	+6.5	✓	✓
1	27 at34	+7.0	+20.5	+24.5	✓	✓
1	0 at45	+45.0	+22.5	+23.0	✗	✓
1	14 at59	+45.0	+14.5	+16.0	✗	✓
1	37 at21	-16.0	+17.0	+29.0	✓	✗
1	0 at57	+57.0	+25.5	+36.5	✗	✓
1	9 at19	+10.0	+16.5	+14.5	✗	✓
1	27 at37	+10.0	+5.5	+4.5	✓	✓
1	45 at6	-39.0	-19.5	-24.5	✗	✓
1	15 at10	-5.0	+16.0	+7.5	✗	✗
1	7 at59	+52.0	+22.0	+29.5	✗	✓
1	0 at50	+50.0	+28.0	+40.5	✗	✓
1	21 at24	+3.0	+15.5	+16.5	✓	✓
1	10 at24	+14.0	+5.0	-13.5	✓	✓
1	27 at21	-6.0	+4.0	+4.0	✓	✗
1	0 at39	+39.0	+22.0	+21.5	✓	✓
1	26 at42	+16.0	+30.5	+37.5	✓	✓
1	8 at34	+26.0	+5.0	+4.0	✓	✓
1	16 at38	+22.0	+18.5	+27.5	✓	✓
1	10 at24	+14.0	+10.5	+23.5	✓	✓
1	24 at31	+7.0	+12.5	+21.0	✓	✓
2	38 at32	-6.0	-3.5	-1.5	✓	✓
2	28 at24	-4.0	-1.5	+3.0	✓	✓
2	8 at43	+35.0	+18.0	+32.5	✗	✓
2	17 at28	+11.0	+10.0	+7.0	✓	✓
2	20 at38	+18.0	+10.5	+9.5	✓	✓
2	21 at28	+7.0	+6.5	+3.0	✓	✓
2	7 at22	+15.0	+19.0	+19.5	✓	✓
2	27 at24	-3.0	+11.5	+6.5	✗	✗
2	30 at38	+8.0	-1.0	-4.0	✓	✗
2	20 at33	+13.0	+9.5	+8.5	✓	✓
2	3 at49	+46.0	+2.0	+17.5	✗	✓
2	20 at70	+50.0	+39.0	+40.5	✗	✓
2	45 at24	-21.0	-1.0	-12.5	✗	✓
2	19 at29	+10.0	+5.5	+7.5	✗	✓
2	31 at27	-4.0	+6.5	+6.5	✓	✗
2	13 at16	+3.0	+9.5	+14.0	✓	✓
2	38 at21	-17.0	-1.0	-4.0	✗	✓
2	7 at34	+27.0	+12.5	+17.5	✗	✓
2	31 at17	-14.0	+15.5	+7.0	✗	✗
2	45 at17	-28.0	-12.5	-8.5	✓	✓
2	14 at45	+31.0	+27.5	+34.5	✓	✓
2	26 at28	+2.0	+5.0	+12.5	✓	✓
2	10 at17	+7.0	+0.5	-5.5	✓	✓
2	7 at35	+28.0	+16.0	+17.5	✗	✓
2	38 at13	-25.0	+8.5	+1.5	✗	✗
2	7 at56	+49.0	+22.5	+30.5	✗	✓
2	6 at44	+38.0	+6.0	-3.0	✓	✓
2	0 at52	+52.0	+46.0	+44.5	✓	✓
2	27 at29	+2.0	+11.5	+1.5	✓	✓
2	29 at47	+18.0	+5.5	—	—	✓
2	31 at39	+8.0	-22.5	-23.5	✓	✗
2	9 at41	+32.0	+41.5	+44.5	✓	✓
2	35 at24	-11.0	-22.5	-25.5	✓	✓
2	7 at12	+5.0	+18.0	+7.0	✗	✓
2	38 at36	-2.0	+2.5	-3.0	✓	✗
2	23 at17	-6.0	-3.0	-12.5	✓	✓
2	21 at18	-3.0	+8.5	+3.5	✗	✗
2	27 at9	-18.0	-21.0	-24.5	✓	✓
2	23 at24	+1.0	+8.0	+2.5	✗	✓
2	20 at48	+28.0	+19.0	+14.5	✓	✓
2	31 at26	-5.0	+1.0	+2.5	✓	✗
2	24 at28	+4.0	+15.5	+9.5	✗	✓
2	20 at26	+6.0	+6.5	+9.5	✓	✓
2	10 at28	+18.0	+6.0	+13.5	✗	✓
2	38 at14	-24.0	+6.0	-11.5	✗	✗
2	30 at49	+19.0	+31.0	+30.5	✗	✓
2	10 at43	+33.0	+18.5	+12.5	✓	✓
2	26 at35	+9.0	+31.5	+20.5	✗	✓
2	21 at44	+23.0	+2.0	+17.5	✗	✓
2	14 at16	+2.0	+20.0	+28.5	✓	✓
3	36 at50	+14.0	+27.0	+18.5	✗	✓
3	45 at17	-28.0	-13.5	-24.5	✗	✓
3	44 at39	-5.0	+4.5	-2.5	✗	✗
3	19 at36	+17.0	+17.5	+17.5	✓	✓
3	10 at24	+14.0	+6.0	+2.5	✓	✓
3	31 at35	+4.0	+23.0	+15.5	✗	✓
3	20 at28	+8.0	+9.0	+5.5	✓	✓
3	41 at23	-18.0	-14.0	-21.0	✓	✓
3	14 at22	+8.0	+10.0	+4.5	✓	✓
3	7 at35	+28.0	+22.5	+10.0	✓	✓
3	10 at16	+6.0	-2.0	+7.5	✓	✗
3	0 at38	+38.0	+52.0	+44.5	✗	✓
3	7 at55	+48.0	+33.5	+22.5	✓	✓
3	27 at31	+4.0	+6.0	+3.0	✓	✓
3	24 at17	-7.0	-0.5	-5.5	✗	✓
3	20 at31	+11.0	+18.0	+19.5	✓	✓
3	15 at51	+36.0	+20.5	+14.5	✓	✓
3	14 at21	+7.0	+16.0	+10.0	✗	✓
3	31 at41	+10.0	+5.5	+1.5	✓	✓
3	35 at26	-9.0	+8.5	-3.0	✗	✗
3	17 at52	+35.0	+37.0	+36.5	✗	✓
3	20 at27	+7.0	-1.0	-6.5	✓	✗
3	7 at41	+34.0	+20.5	+26.5	✗	✓
3	17 at27	+10.0	+32.0	+27.5	✗	✓
3	30 at24	-6.0	+5.5	-4.5	✗	✗
3	7 at41	+34.0	+9.0	+3.5	✓	✓
3	10 at27	+17.0	+30.5	+29.5	✗	✓
3	3 at59	+56.0	+57.0	+51.5	✓	✓
3	6 at14	+8.0	+24.5	+23.5	✗	✓
3	20 at17	-3.0	+8.0	+2.5	✗	✗
3	24 at32	+8.0	+3.0	-2.5	✓	✓
3	13 at55	+42.0	+37.0	+39.5	✗	✓
3	13 at27	+14.0	+25.5	+10.0	✓	✓
3	28 at21	-7.0	-10.0	-11.5	✓	✓
3	42 at35	-7.0	-16.0	-24.5	✓	✓
3	36 at41	+5.0	+7.5	+4.5	✓	✓
3	41 at34	-7.0	+9.0	+3.5	✗	✗
3	48 at20	-28.0	+5.0	-3.0	✗	✗
3	7 at31	+24.0	+22.0	+20.5	✓	✓
3	9 at42	+33.0	+38.0	+34.5	✗	✓
3	6 at30	+24.0	+29.5	+29.5	✗	✓
3	31 at21	-10.0	+28.0	+15.5	✗	✗
3	35 at49	+14.0	-11.0	+3.0	✗	✗
3	26 at28	+2.0	+23.5	+9.5	✗	✓
3	48 at49	+1.0	+19.0	+4.0	✗	✓
3	30 at44	+14.0	+21.0	+21.0	✓	✓
3	0 at33	+33.0	+27.0	+27.5	✗	✓
3	31 at35	+4.0	+16.0	+4.0	—	✓
3	38 at27	-11.0	+15.5	+9.5	✗	✗
3	33 at20	-13.0	-18.0	-23.5	✓	✓
3	10 at54	+44.0	+23.5	+24.5	✗	✓

Every prediction uses only ratings from games completed before that game's week - never that week's own results. "Vs. spread" grades the pick against the market line on file (outright win or backdoor cover both count), when one exists. "Winner" only checks whether the predicted winner matched the actual winner, ignoring the spread entirely. Final/Predicted are shown from the home team's perspective (positive = home won/favored by that many points).